{"id":30371,"date":"2025-05-28T22:34:26","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T01:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/resumopolitico.com.br\/?p=30371"},"modified":"2025-05-28T22:37:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T01:37:03","slug":"30371","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/resumopolitico.com.br\/?p=30371","title":{"rendered":"Brasil, sorte e estupidez"},"content":{"rendered":"
Durante o governo de Jair Bolsonaro (2019\u20132022), o Brasil aderiu explicitamente \u00e0 linha geopol\u00edtica do ex-presidente Donald Trump, inclusive com esfriamentos simb\u00f3licos e diplom\u00e1ticos com parceiros importantes como China sob o pretexto de alinhamento \u201cocidental\u201d.<\/div>\n
\u2022Bolsonaro apoiou abertamente a reelei\u00e7\u00e3o de Trump em 2020, e resistiu por meses a reconhecer a vit\u00f3ria de Joe Biden.<\/div>\n
\u2022Essa postura fechou portas na Casa Branca ap\u00f3s a posse de Biden, com cortes de coopera\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental, bloqueios t\u00e9cnicos em organismos multilaterais e congelamento de agendas bilaterais.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Esse foi o primeiro preju\u00edzo estrat\u00e9gico: o Brasil perdeu protagonismo internacional justo no momento em que a Amaz\u00f4nia voltava ao centro da agenda clim\u00e1tica global.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u00a02. O governo Lula e o confronto com as big techs: STF e Estados Unidos em nova rota de colis\u00e3o<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Com a elei\u00e7\u00e3o de Lula e a volta da esquerda ao poder, esperava-se uma recomposi\u00e7\u00e3o diplom\u00e1tica com os EUA sob Biden. E de fato, houve acenos m\u00fatuos em temas como meio ambiente, democracia e combate ao extremismo.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Mas um novo ru\u00eddo surgiu quando Trump ganhou as elei\u00e7\u00f5es e assumiu o poder: as a\u00e7\u00f5es do STF, em especial de Alexandre de Moraes, contra as plataformas digitais americanas, como Google, X (Twitter), Meta e Telegram.<\/div>\n
\u2022O embate foi interpretado por parte do establishment americano \u2014 republicano\u00a0 \u2014 como um ataque \u00e0 liberdade de express\u00e3o e aos interesses econ\u00f4micos das big techs, que s\u00e3o hoje um dos maiores instrumentos de soft power dos EUA.<\/div>\n
\u2022A amea\u00e7a de responsabilizar judicialmente executivos, censurar conte\u00fados, aplicar san\u00e7\u00f5es e bloquear redes sociais gerou protestos no Congresso americano, inclusive de Donald Trump Jr. e senadores republicanos, que passaram a usar o Brasil como exemplo de \u201cditadura digital\u201d.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
O resultado? Perda de credibilidade democr\u00e1tica, desconfian\u00e7a de investidores internacionais em setores de tecnologia, e risco de retalia\u00e7\u00f5es diplom\u00e1ticas e comerciais veladas \u2014 mesmo sem ruptura formal.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u00a03. O preju\u00edzo invis\u00edvel: perda de oportunidades, capitais e protagonismo<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Esse ziguezague pol\u00edtico trouxe ao Brasil um preju\u00edzo que n\u00e3o \u00e9 facilmente mensurado em reais ou d\u00f3lares, mas \u00e9 profundo:<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
a) Perda de previsibilidade institucional<\/div>\n
\u2022Investidores globais, especialmente em setores estrat\u00e9gicos como energia, tecnologia e defesa, prezam por seguran\u00e7a jur\u00eddica, estabilidade e previsibilidade.<\/div>\n
\u2022O Brasil se mostrou vol\u00e1til, ideologizado e suscet\u00edvel a decis\u00f5es monocr\u00e1ticas, tanto no Executivo quanto no Judici\u00e1rio.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
b) Isolamento estrat\u00e9gico<\/div>\n
\u2022Ao confrontar Biden depois Trump, o Brasil desperdi\u00e7ou capital pol\u00edtico com as duas alas da maior pot\u00eancia global \u2014 algo raro e preocupante.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
c) Custo diplom\u00e1tico e reputacional<\/div>\n
\u2022O pa\u00eds deixou de ser \u201cinterlocutor confi\u00e1vel\u201d no Sul Global e passou a ser visto como um territ\u00f3rio inst\u00e1vel, onde a altern\u00e2ncia de poder n\u00e3o preserva os interesses permanentes da na\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u00a0Conclus\u00e3o: um pa\u00eds de sorte\u2026 desperdi\u00e7ada<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
De fato, somos um pa\u00eds de sorte: abund\u00e2ncia de recursos, posi\u00e7\u00e3o geogr\u00e1fica estrat\u00e9gica, diversidade cultural e estabilidade institucional relativa. Mas essa sorte vem sendo sistematicamente desperdi\u00e7ada por uma elite dirigente que n\u00e3o distingue Estado de governo, interesse p\u00fablico de projeto pol\u00edtico, nem soberania de revanche ideol\u00f3gica.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Nos \u00faltimos oito anos, o Brasil n\u00e3o teve pol\u00edtica externa de Estado. Teve agendas circunstanciais de poder. E isso nos custou influ\u00eancia, investimento, lideran\u00e7a regional e \u2014 sobretudo \u2014 confian\u00e7a.<\/div>\n
Alinhamentos pol\u00edticos \u00e0 parte, Lula e Bolsonaro demonstraram n\u00e3o ser dotados de preparo suficiente para discernir governo de na\u00e7\u00e3o e muito menos entender de Geopol\u00edtica global e sua import\u00e2ncia\u00a0 sobre a economia brasileira.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u00c9 hora de recuperar o senso de perman\u00eancia na diplomacia e a racionalidade estrat\u00e9gica nas rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais. O Brasil precisa voltar a dialogar com todos \u2014 e submeter seus lit\u00edgios internos ao crivo da legalidade e da prud\u00eancia, n\u00e3o do confronto.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n
RUI GUERRA<\/strong><\/em>
\nAnalista colaborador do Resumo Pol\u00edtica<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
\u201cas opini\u00f5es emitidas por nossos colaboradores, n\u00e3o refletem, necessariamente, a opini\u00e3o do site\u201d<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante o governo de Jair Bolsonaro (2019\u20132022), o Brasil aderiu explicitamente \u00e0 linha geopol\u00edtica do ex-presidente Donald Trump, inclusive com esfriamentos simb\u00f3licos e diplom\u00e1ticos com parceiros importantes como China sob o pretexto de alinhamento \u201cocidental\u201d. \u2022Bolsonaro apoiou abertamente a reelei\u00e7\u00e3o de Trump em 2020, e resistiu por meses a reconhecer a vit\u00f3ria de Joe Biden. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29838,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[104,123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-destaque","category-coluna-rui_guerra"],"yoast_head":"\nBrasil, sorte e estupidez - Resumo Pol\u00edtico<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/resumopolitico.com.br\/?p=30371\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brasil, sorte e estupidez - Resumo Pol\u00edtico\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Durante o governo de Jair Bolsonaro (2019\u20132022), o Brasil aderiu explicitamente \u00e0 linha geopol\u00edtica do ex-presidente Donald Trump, inclusive com esfriamentos simb\u00f3licos e diplom\u00e1ticos com parceiros importantes como China sob o pretexto de alinhamento \u201cocidental\u201d. \u2022Bolsonaro apoiou abertamente a reelei\u00e7\u00e3o de Trump em 2020, e resistiu por meses a reconhecer a vit\u00f3ria de Joe Biden. 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